Industry trends in a downturn
An article from McKinsey looking at historical industry data in previous downturns, and an indicator of what will happen in this one. In IT in particular, they point out that...
During recessions, tech spending has historically fallen more than GDP has. Our research (covering economic downturns in 50 countries over the past 13 years) indicates that IT spending typically fell 5 to 7 times farther than GDP, with the most severe declines in hardware (which fell 8 to 9 times GDP) and less severe ones in software and services (3 to 5 times GDP).
They point out, however, that the drop in 2001 was worse because of the IT bubble preceding it, partly fueled by Y2K and web excitement.
Consumer goods is an interesting area in that education is a strong area of increase during a recession, at the same time that people cut back on food away from home, personal-care products, and tobacco (see picture).
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economy
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